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Key metrics short-term forecast
Module with ML-models helping energy companies to predict electricity consumption
Introduction
The Neighboring country submits an hourly forecast of the balance of power flows per day.
Despite the fact that the neighboring country tries to observe the total planned daily balance, during the day the actual balance can be very different from the planned one.
The Supplier's electricity market incurs losses from unscheduled loading of power plants to compensate for deviations in the balance of the Neighboring country.
Standard methods for forecasting time series gave an average fact-forecast error comparable to the fact-plan of the Neighboring Country, that in absolute values the average daily forecast error before the pilot was 236 MW.
CLIENT PROFILE
System Operator of United Power System of Russia
2002
FOUNDED
Russia
LOCATED
243 GW
CAPACITY
$120 bln
PROJECTS SUPPORTED
United Power System of Russia (UPS of Russia) covers the territory of 81 federal subjects and is formed of 71 regional power systems comprising 7 interconnected power systems (IPS): East, Siberia, Ural, Middle Volga, South, Center and North-West.

All power systems are interconnected by high voltage tie-lines 110-1150 kV and operate synchronously. Operation and control of 7 interconnections and 71 regional subsystems are performed by SO UPS branches – interconnected and regional dispatch control offices. Main features:
UPS of Russia is exceptional in quantitative and qualitative characteristics. The territory spans 9 time zones. Generation fleet includes over 800 power stations with total installed capacity 243 GW (as of 1 January 2019). Due to climate conditions and natural fuel resources, Thermal power plants on fossil fuels provide about 68% of the installed capacity.
Key element of the backbone grid is a lot of extensive transmission lines with occasionally limited capacity. UPS of Russia consists of over 10 700 transmission lines and more than 12 000 power substations of 110-750 kV. Considerable part of electrical facilities operates under severe climate conditions of the North and Far North.
Stable operation of power systems with weak interconnections in some regions is provided by wide implementation of Emergency Control Automatics, managed and controlled by SO UPS.
UPS of Russia operates synchronously with power systems of Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Mongolia, Ukraine and Estonia. Power systems of Uzbekistan and Kirghizia (Central Asia) are synchronized with UPS of Russia via Kazakhstan. Power system of Finland is interconnected asynchronously with UPS of Russia via HVDC-link Vyborgskiy.
FEATURES
Reporting and forecast
Unified reporting system for each object according to the planned and actual terms of implementation, budget development, materials from objective control, as well as a predictive forecast of the actual implementation of the project.
FEATURES
Objective control
Accounting for work performed with supporting materials from means of objective control, which allows controlling persons to accept work performed both on the basis of acts of work performed and on the basis of photo and video documents. The inability to write off works retroactively provides transparency and antifraud.
Ernesto's team is formed by a team of specialists with extensive construction experience, including experience in the design and construction of the XXII Olympic Winter Games in Sochi, Russia.

Experience has shown that digitalization of the construction industry is vital and will lead to the optimization of all processes both at the design and construction stage, and at the stage of further operation of facilities.

For such an ambitious task, we needed a team with really great experience and strong competencies, just like Somerandomdeveloper.
Aleksander Karandin
CEO | Ernesto
ENGAGEMENT
Our engagement with Ernesto started during the early days from started developing the platform. We worked closely with the team to build initial prototypes. We went through several quick iterations using Agile sprints to validate cloud platform as a viable alternative to traditional models for constructions services.

A relationship that started with building MVPs and prototypes slowly turned into a full fledged team extension and long term tech partnership. By working closely with the CIO and hardware teams, we have now become the proud software team driving Ernesto's hardware business.
Result
Using a recurrent neural network, it was possible to significantly reduce the forecast error:
  • 157% when forecasting the target parameter parameter in 1 hour
  • 45% when forecasting the target parameter in 2 hours
FEATURES
3D modeling
The platform allows you to correlate the work performed with the calendar schedule and 3D model of the object.
FEATURES
Meetings management
Change control, logging of assignments and meetings, which allows you to quickly make these changes as a project at all stages of implementation.
Somerandomdeveloper was an excellent partner for us with vast experience in the field of digitalization and wide technical experience in the field of construction - exactly what we need to launch our platform
Aleksander Karandin
CEO | Ernesto
TECHNOLOGIES
When developing this platform, a large stack of technologies is used, such as Data Mining in-depth analysis and predictive analytics, machine learning and the Internet of things, cloud video surveillance and video analytics, data storage and mobile technologies.
DESIGN
The platform allows you to show the key parameters of a group of projects both nationwide and in the local region for both the top-management of the company and the heads of regional departments.
Our software is the face of our business, so it's critical that it both looks and performs to the high standards we expect.
Somerandomdeveloper has been and continues to be a fantastic partner that saves us from having to build out a full in-house software development team.
Margarita Petrosyan
COO | Ernesto
FEATURES
All project stages
The key points of the project are always under control due to the formation of the status only after confirmation at all stages of implementation.